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Author Topic: how the other half crunches  (Read 5589 times)
Ted Ryder
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« Reply #330 on: 12:36:28, 05-10-2008 »

Here is the Harvard Economic Panel about the current crisis. Extremely informative! Requires RealPlayer or similar.

http://video2.harvard.edu:8080/ramgen/AAD-PAN/FinMktsPanel.rm


    Having listened (admitted not to all of it) I was less impress than George but having little understanding of economics, the meaning of fiscal terms or of how the markets work I really don't think any  "man-in the street" or "common-sense" comments I could make have any relevance or carry any weight. Unfortunately it seemed to me that the experts' analyisis of what had gone wrong gave little indication that they knew what action would put it right. Richard's Marx quote would suggest that 150 years ago economists could have told you what the outcome of the wild expansion of under-financed home-ownership would be, so one would have thought that the "experts" who would have advised Clinton, or whoever, as to where the implementation of any specific flight of fancy would lead would have curbed any wild political adventure. Far from this being the case it seems it was Greenspan who was driving forward the dangerous policies. Is it little wonder that the public and the politicians turn on the market as one would turn on a doctor whose directions one had followed only to be told that your illness had increased because you had followed that medical advice.
    Elizabeth Warren appeared to float a good idea when she said that mortage payments should have been frozen at the "teaser rate" which was the rate deemed to be the one the buyer could actually afford, yet when asked why this idea had not been followed the professor admitted she herself would not pursued that policy but would have "tried other things first" what these "other things" were she did not explain.
  You do not have to be on the Republican right to be thinking, like someone in the spring of 1914, that what we need is a bloodly good war. Of course we all know what that led to.
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Turfan Fragment
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« Reply #331 on: 13:39:15, 05-10-2008 »

Thanks for posting that, Turf. Well worth ploughing through to get an idea of what the view (principally) from US academic economists is to all this. As you say, very informative and usefully clearly expressed by all the participants. Quite apart from anything else I was amazed at how much common ground there was between the panelists in identifying what had gone wrong, although there were clear differences in emphasis about what now to do about it (the former, I suppose in a general sense, not actually a million miles away from Marx's analysis that Richard quoted, but the latter, staying within a capitalist context, obviously so).
Marx's basic position is that credit markets as such are a recipe for disaster. Nobody on that panel seems to believe that, and they do seem to have the benefit of having witnessed history. Ordinary citizens (those without access to 'innovative financial instruments') are only at risk when the credit markets themselves are out of control; the kind/scale of credit market crisis that someone in the 19th century may have witnessed is nowadays something that the market itself would 'absorb' without any palpable repercussions for what pundits here refer to as 'Main Street.'

The argument on the panel was between those that praised these 'financial instruments' in principle and those that opposed them. I personally am extremely suspicious of financial instruments that allow you to bet simultaneously that a company is going to fail and that it is going to not fail, or on the other hand financial instruments that allow you to make a profit on money that is not your own. But I too am no economist. Just a Joe Six-Pack. I can't read a balance sheet or follow some of the schemes, but I can certainly smell greed in all its essences, from attar of avarice to stinking corpse of deregulated yuck.

Another valuable resource was yesterday's edition of 'This American Life', a sort of radio-based variety show which often devotes entire episodes to specific events or topics. When it becomes available for playback, I'll post a link.

This will affect everyone in the world, but especially the poorest, while the rich will whine the loudest.
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George Garnett
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« Reply #332 on: 16:29:44, 05-10-2008 »

Marx's basic position is that credit markets as such are a recipe for disaster. Nobody on that panel seems to believe that, and they do seem to have the benefit of having witnessed history.

Well indeed, but then 'credit markets' are essentially what capitalism is. And even 'capitalist economists' have their own version of acknowledging instability in such a system in accepting the likelihood of the 'boom and bust' cycle. Marx argued that would be cumulative and fatal to the system; the panel members here were clearly all starting from the position that it needn't be. And they would all, undoubtedly, have disagreed with Marx by rejecting his basic premise that all value derives from labour and nothing else. But their accounts of what had gone wrong did nonetheless seem to me to have clear parallels with the mechanism that Marx described  -  even if he regarded it as inherently fatal, and they thought resulted from mismanagement.   

Quote
The argument on the panel was between those that praised these 'financial instruments' in principle and those that opposed them.

But as I understood it they were all against the lack of transparency that these particular clever-dick 'financial instruments' had introduced into the system. By their capitalist lights, a basic objection was that these particular things were anti-market, they mucked up the market by being near impossible to value properly. Hence, from a capitalist/market perspective, the problems. I may have misunderstood but I think those on the panel who were saying there was nothing wrong in principle with repackaging 'financial instruments' were saying that they were fine if they brought or maintained clarity; but these things were doing the opposite, in effect the anti-market thing, to the extent that no one knew what they were worth (which again resonates with Marx in that passage). Whether or not one agrees with the basic premise, that at least seems a consistent position to hold.
« Last Edit: 16:35:30, 05-10-2008 by George Garnett » Logged
Turfan Fragment
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« Reply #333 on: 17:24:56, 05-10-2008 »

Well-put, George.

So can we see an equivalent panel like this with a bunch of Marxist economists on it? I'd be interested in seeing such a thing.

Also, who decides whether something is sufficiently 'transparent'? Or do I have to be an economist or forensic consultant to do that?
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Turfan Fragment
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« Reply #334 on: 02:20:20, 08-10-2008 »

Another valuable resource was yesterday's edition of 'This American Life', a sort of radio-based variety show which often devotes entire episodes to specific events or topics. When it becomes available for playback, I'll post a link.

And here it is. The format and style take some getting used to, but a lot of it is very informative, to me at least.

http://thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=365
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HtoHe
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« Reply #335 on: 09:31:15, 08-10-2008 »

I personally am extremely suspicious of financial instruments that allow you to bet simultaneously that a company is going to fail and that it is going to not fail, or on the other hand financial instruments that allow you to make a profit on money that is not your own.

I'm reminded of the scene in 'Trading Places' where the Dukes are giving Billy Ray Valentine a quick summary of what commodity brokers do.  From (imperfect) memory the exchange goes something like:

Duke (I forget which one):  ...and the beauty of it is: whether the investors win or lose Dukes still get the commissions

Billy Ray:   seems to me you guys are a couple of bookies

Duke: he's got it!
« Last Edit: 09:38:17, 08-10-2008 by HtoHe » Logged
thompson1780
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« Reply #336 on: 10:54:37, 09-10-2008 »



Tommo  Smiley
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George Garnett
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« Reply #337 on: 12:20:28, 09-10-2008 »

And here it is. The format and style take some getting used to, but a lot of it is very informative, to me at least.
http://thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=365

Thank you posting that, Turf. Highly informative for me too. A brilliant bit of reporting IMHO. Listening to it I was torn between alarm at the magnitude of what was being said and admiration and relief that quality broadcasting of this sort does still exist. I'm certainly not economist enough or brainy enough to be able to evaluate what was being said but it felt trustworthy to me and, in factual terms, clarified a lot of things for me about the way the initial (sub-prime and other) problems leached their way into the whole system - and how and why it all became so big in the process.

BBC Radio 4 has done some good analytical reporting on this too but rather more piece-meal than this. Turfers' recommendation seconded.
« Last Edit: 23:08:46, 09-10-2008 by George Garnett » Logged
Turfan Fragment
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« Reply #338 on: 18:01:16, 09-10-2008 »



Tommo  Smiley
Sad yet funny. Didn't they have a bigger version of this pic?
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Milly Jones
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« Reply #339 on: 18:25:52, 09-10-2008 »

Oh!  I've just received that dollar bill by email from America.  Grin  Apologies to those on the board that I've forwarded it on to by email.
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IgnorantRockFan
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WWW
« Reply #340 on: 17:22:39, 10-10-2008 »

Has anyone seen the cover of the Economist?

I'll post it as a link, as the image may offend some...

Economist Cover

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Allegro, ma non tanto
Turfan Fragment
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« Reply #341 on: 17:38:02, 10-10-2008 »

IRF -- that is a hoax. The Economist never had that as a cover nor planned to.

Doesn't make it any less funny, of course.
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thompson1780
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« Reply #342 on: 21:38:41, 10-10-2008 »



Tommo  Smiley
Sad yet funny. Didn't they have a bigger version of this pic?

Surely Washington has enough on his plate without having to worry about inflation?  Wink

Tommo
Governor of the Piggy Bank of England
London
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IgnorantRockFan
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« Reply #343 on: 22:03:43, 10-10-2008 »

IRF -- that is a hoax. The Economist never had that as a cover nor planned to.

Yes, I had assumed that  Smiley

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Milly Jones
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« Reply #344 on: 17:31:21, 12-10-2008 »

Diamond-encrusted earphone covers - what financial crisis?

By Duncan Geere Tech Digest - Friday, October 10 04:12 pm

I suppose there are two schools of thought with regards to the current whirlwind around the stock markets. One group of people will save every penny they have, so that they're sure of being able to afford to eat in a year's time still.

Another group, however, thinks "sod it, I might not have any money left tomorrow, I better spend it all today just in case", and buys these... hideous... things. They're diamond-encrusted headphone covers. You have to provide your own headphones!

Depending on how much you have invested in Iceland, you can either plump for the US$60,000 coloured diamonds (yellow, pink or black), a US$4,500 set with white or black diamonds, or even just a set covered with the ever-popular Swarovski crystals, for "just" US$110. That's Christmas for your mad aunt sorted.

Related posts: Swarovski Mickey Mouse MP3 player ramps up the tack factor | Gresso White Diamond mobiles - 'bling' doesn't even come close.

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